I've been having some fun this fall plunking down modest wagers on NFL games. Indulging my inner 'Jimmy-The-Greek' and testing whether I have that rare and elusive gift of sports prognostication.
The truth is, all bets that are available have been analyzed 6 ways to Sunday (literally) and offer a careful balance of risk vs reward through either an elevated payout or via a point spread (adding points to the score of the underdog.). So a big case can be made for making your selections by simply throwing darts at your computer screen instead of spending hours carefully weighing all the factors affecting the outcome of a game. And, sadly, my own empirical research supports this supposition. The only reason I don't employ the darts method is to avoid scratches on my screen.
The screwy reality of it all is that if it was HARD to win money betting on football then, well, it would be EASY to win money betting on football. Why? Because all you'd have to do to win is place the exact OPPOSITE bets of the poor guy a few cubicles down from you who loses his shirt every Sunday. (If he could endure the obvious swipe at his level of intelligence and competency, you could put him on a small 'retainer' to advise you of his various wagers each week.)
The exception to all this is if you just so you happen to have some kind of 'inside information' on a game. Like if you know for a fact that the quarterback for one of the teams drove his Escalade over a fire hydrant and into a tree at 3AM on the night before the game and his wife had to throw a football through the back window to extricate him from the car- that might give you an edge over the other bettors. These opportunities are rare though...
That being said, the gerbil wheel of sports betting is kept aspin by this foundational notion that there is low hanging fruit to be picked from the schedule each week. 'Sure things'. 'Can't Lose Propositions'. 'No Brainers', 'Cold, Hard Locks'. Games that grandma could pick blindfolded. And it is the quest to put a finger on these easy opportunities that consumes you. Endlessly. It's related to that sense of assuredness you get each time you buy a MegaBucks Lotto ticket.
And such was my mentality when I tuned into Sportstalk radio on Friday and heard a Las Vegas Oddsmaker arrogantly prognosticating about how the Raiders would be absolutely demolished by the Steelers on Sunday and how a wager on Pittsburgh to win by 14 1/2 points was the juicy, low hanging fruit of the week just waiting to be picked. If only people like me weren't too stupid to see the light and put our money down
Well, it's Monday morning and things did not go as envisioned and I'm out 20 bucks. What bugs me isn't that the guy made a prediction- it's that he made an arrogant, cocky, pompous prediction designed to draw suckers like me in. So I thought I'd make this funny video playing the radio clip and adding some graphics for entertainment. Hope you enjoy:
CLICK HERE
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